Friday, December 14, 2007

Rates Always Higher After the Last Fed Cut

The trick is guessing which cut will be "the last one"!

Bear with me here:

* Four weeks ago Wall Street expected no rate cut.

* Three weeks ago Wall Street thought maybe 1/4 point.

* Two weeks ago Wall Street thought 1/2 point would be more likely.

After last Friday's Unemployment Numbers were released showing 94,000 more jobs created (higher than the anticipated number) and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% all these "smart" economists are predicting (drum roll, please):

* Maybe a rate cut but if there is one only a 1/4% drop. (do these experts actually get a paycheck for these predictions?)

This time they got lucky, or got it right, as the Fed in fact cut rates by a quarter point.

But why do rates go up after each rate cut?

You can look it up. Previous Fed cuts started a temporary euphoria in the stock and credit markets, but soon they sobered up and rates started going up again, erasing any gains they'd previously earned.

Mortgage rates are tied to their respective mortgage bond, which are traded throughout the day.

Mortgage bonds ANTICIPATE Fed moves ... they don't REACT to them.

If the mortgage markets (and other securities) figure the Fed is through with cutting rates that means the economy is most likely on the mend.

A healing economy drives up demand for products and services. A healing economy can stir up inflation.

Future rate moves now mean rate increases. And mortgage rates will hinge not on the likelihood of a Fed move but whether inflation is on the horizon.

If the Fed cuts rates by a quarter point then consumers get the wrong impression that their mortgage rate went down by 1/4%.

I will get calls from clients and the calls will go like this:

"Hey David, that's probably the last rate cut. I want to lock in now."

"Okay, but the rates are higher than they were before the cut," I say.

"Huh?"

Loyal readers of this column will know why rates went up and that's because bond traders figure the Fed has done enough (or too little, depending upon your perspective) and now the opposite is likely to occur and mortgage loan rates will back up to the mid to high six percent range.

(If you're counting, that's still pretty darned good)

If rates are always higher after the last Fed cut, how do you know when the last Fed cut will be?

You don't know. You have to guess, just like those economists who were all over the map predicting this last Fed cut.

But do you want to know a secret? The very best rates come just days before the last Fed cut. That's when you lock in. And how do you know when the last Fed cut is going to be?

"

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source: realestatelocator.com

December 2007 Real Estate Cybertips

The shirking dollar affects all of our wallets and one of the best measures of the average change in our purchasing power is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that calculates the average price change of goods and services over time.

This neat site provides a little calculator that quickly tells you how prices have changed over the years. Just enter the cost of a product or service in a specific year and, by applying the CPI statistics, you instantly get the cost today.

There is also more useful information about CPI and CPI calculations at this helpful place.

Trick #2: Uninstall with Ease

Want an easy way to uninstall that program you don't want on your computer any more? The Windows standard "Remove Programs" often leaves lots of remnants. This neat program does the job efficiently and comes with a satchel of useful related functions.

There's a cleaver function called "Hunt Mode" that allows you to right click on any application shortcut icon and easily perform many tasks including uninstalling, canceling auto start, and initiating Google related searches.

It's a handy tool with lots of extras; and it's priced right. It's on the house.

Great Place #1: Who Made that Pesky Phone Call?

Did you ever get strange calls from someone who either hangs up, asks questions, tries to sell you questionable products or services or was just plain obnoxious? If you have caller ID you can go to this interesting place, type in the caller's number and access reports from others who have been offended by the same culprits.

This neat place has lots of other search functions and information about telemarketing, harassing calls and the Do Not Call Registry.

Great Place #2: Listen to the Book of your Choice

Say farewell to book tapes and CDs. Now you can choose from over 35,000 titles and download the book of your choice for portable listening anywhere and anytime that suits your fancy.

When you visit this great place you can search for the book by title, author or keyword. Once you find the book of your choice you can listed to a sample narration -- often by the author. You don't have to worry about returning the book on time, or carrying around tapes or CDs. And because these books are digital, you can download your book and listen to it right away.

If you are a reader and don't mind becoming a listener, this great pace is worth checking out.

"

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source: realestatelocator.com

Ask Realty Times

Question: Do foreclosed or REO homes sell for less money than other occupied homes? If so, what's the percentage?

Answer: This is a more complex question then anyone might believe, but allow me to offer a brief overview.

We know there are a huge number of foreclosures in the U.S. and that the numbers are rising. For instance, the foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac.com reports that in October foreclosures were up 94 percent over the same month last year.

The difference between fair market values and the sale price for distressed properties is called the "foreclosure discount" and some of the homes listed by RealtyTrac sell at enormous price reductions. However, in some markets there is little or no discount. Thus the size of the discount depends on local market conditions. In general terms, the more distressed homes available for purchase -- the larger the percentage of foreclosures and REOs relative to all homes being sold in a given market -- the greater the foreclosure discount.

Homes which have been foreclosed are sold at auction. The lender typically bids the amount of the loan in an effort to recapture the value of the principal, but this is not always the case. If the property does not sell at auction then the lender has made the winning bid and takes title to the property as "real estate owned" -- a REO.

Is it better to buy at auction or from the lender? The answer depends on the local market and the lender. In some markets, you can buy REOs in big numbers, say 100 or 1,000 at a time, and with significant discounts. In other cases, you can buy foreclosures one-by-one.

In considering foreclosures and REOs you have to look at more than price. Yes, there may be a discount, but what repairs will be required? Will you have to evict former owners? Squatters? In some cases foreclosures will be a bargain even with expenses, but not always.

If foreclosures seem interesting, you want to check the listings with care, work with an experienced broker and attorney, and have cash available for acquisition, repair and retention. Foreclosure professionals try to turn over properties as quickly as possible to reduce carrying costs, maintenance and security expenses, generally in six months or less -- and sometimes in just a few days if the property can be wholesaled to a contractor or investor for repair.

Question: I purchased my home in March. Everything has worked fine until now -- when the heat pump went out. I called my home warranty company, who -- slowly -- called a heating professional to come out and take a look. Two weeks later I still don't have a working heat pump! First the part wasn't in stock. Then that part wouldn't fit. Then the part wouldn't work -- the heat wouldn't shut off! And finally, one of the experts pointed out that the part wasn't the same one being replaced -- it was a cheaper, less effective version.

I have sat home numerous days -- from work -- and evenings either waiting for the guy to show up, or waiting for the next guy to come and fix what the first, or second, or third guy couldn't. Is this my home warranty company's fault? What rights do consumers have in these situations?

Answer: If you're in a cold climate then waiting several weeks to get the heat fixed is not acceptable. It surely would not be acceptable for a landlord and it is not acceptable for a warranty company either.

If the property is old enough then it may well be difficult to get a proper part. As to your "expert" and their "expert," once you get into the world of dueling experts you'll likely need a third one to referee.

Check with your warranty company to see if they have a complaint department or a supervisor. If not, call the consumer affairs department of your state attorney general's office. Beyond that, check with them to see in the future if you can simply have repairs made and then send the bill to them, arguing that a bum heater in cold weather is a threat to health and hearth.

Take a look at HomeWarrantyReviews.com for additional information.

Question: I've been saving money for the last decade to build my dream house -- and now the time is finally here! As far as location, I'm pretty flexible. I rent in the city of Portland metro area now, but would like to be further out from the city center. How would you recommend going about choosing a builder? Are there certain certifications I need to look for?

Answer: I look at home building as a craft. One "builder" and a second "builder" with equally wonderful credentials may well create homes with vastly different levels of quality and cost.

I also view building as a localized business. Once you have identified where you want to build, go down to the building permits office and see which builders are active in your area. Drive by projects, see which ones look interesting, and then speak with builders. Ask builders if you can speak with recent clients in the area -- ask about their experience.

Or if you like a particular home, send a note to the owners and ask if they would recommend their builder.

Question: My husband and I are considering moving back East to live near my family. We aren't in any real rush, but want to move in the next year or so. Is there a certain season that's better than others for selling?

Answer: I have a view regarding this question which is probably different than a lot of brokers: I say any time is the right time to sell. Here's why:

Many areas have active real estate "seasons" when most transactions occur. If you think about this you realize that to have these transactions you need both buyers and sellers. In slower times you simply have fewer buyers and fewer sellers -- however, if there is balance between those who want and those who have then selling times should be about the same.

Of course, if there's a particular time of year when your home looks great, maybe because everything is in bloom, then the opportunity to market in such a favorable environment should not be overlooked.

Question: I've been a landlord for years, but recently I rented out to some tenants who constantly have loud parties -- bothering neighbors with whom I generally have a good rapport. I'm also concerned that the home may not be being taken care of. Do I have any recourse?

Answer: How loud is loud? Some police departments and environmental health agencies actually have meters to measure such things -- if someone is above the limit they can get a citation.

You need to ask if the neighbor's complaints are reasonable -- say band practice on a week night. If yes, then perhaps the best approach if you know the tenants and have good relations with them is to sit down, explain your concern and alert them to the possibility that the neighbors could seek help from the police or local government.

If the neighbor's concerns are not reasonable, then you should still sit down with the tenants and discuss the complaints anyway so they know what's going on. It may well be that noise concerns are a pretext, the real issue is some other matter with the neighbors.

A common lease provision includes language which says an owner can deem a tenant "undesirable" and terminate a lease if the tenant, his family, guests, or employees cause annoyance to neighbors. Check your lease for such language and then ask an attorney if it's actually enforceable. If yes, then perhaps a gentle warning letter to the tenants would be appropriate.

Question: A few years ago I purchased a home with a subprime mortgage. I put no money down and have been making interest only payments. I am getting worried, as I don't think I'll be able to make the new, higher payments when they start up next year. I don't want to move out of my home. I love it here! Any advice?

Answer: Yes, refinance now with a conventional loan or the FHASecure program. However, check your loan papers to assure that you do not set off a prepayment penalty -- if there's one in your loan then if possible you'll want to wait until the penalty period ends before refinancing.

What you have -- to be polite -- is a toxic loan, what lenders describe as "nontraditional" financing. It will be difficult if not impossible to get another interest-only loan with nothing down in many markets. Thus you will need either equity in the home or cash to reduce the mortgage balance when you refinance.

Given your situation it would be a good idea to start saving now so that you can carry the property at a higher monthly cost if that is necessary for a few months to avoid the prepayment penalty. Make a point of paying all bills in full and on time to maintain your credit standing. Speak with lenders now about replacement financing.

Question: I'm looking to become a real estate agent. I love the idea of helping people find their dream homes! Is there a way I can take classes and still keep my full-time job? Where do I go about finding out more about school.

Answer: This should not be a problem. Hundreds of thousands of newly-minted salespeople enter the real estate market each year, so there are plenty of classes available.

Educational requirements vary by state. For specifics, speak with your local Realtor association, individual brokers and check the phone book (does anyone do that anymore?) for real estate schools. You may be able to find night and weekend classes that will qualify you to take the licensure exam.

"

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source: realestatelocator.com

FTC Loses A Round In MLS Witch Hunt

The Federal Trade Commission filed a complaint last year against RealComp II, Ltd, claiming the broker-owned MLS promoted anti-competitive policies with regard to the posting of MLS listings to the public.

Seems RealComp only wanted to publish listings provided by brokers that employ other brokers, not listings in which the seller would represent himself or refuse to pay cooperating brokers.

This little trick is designed to get buyers to contact the seller directly, and skip paying their broker. Realcomp didn't prevent these MLS-only brokers from joining the MLS, only from putting their listings on MLS public marketplace feeds like Realtor.com.

Since the MLS was designed to facilitate cooperation between brokers on both sides of the transaction, it's understandable that some brokers wouldn't like MLS-only brokers sneaking FSBOs into their public listings feeds.

Chief Administrative Judge (ALJ) Stephen J. McGuire dismissed the FTC's complaint on the basis that the FTC didn't prove its case.

While he agreed that "Complaint Counsel 'has made a prima facie showing as to the anticompetitive nature of the alleged restraints,' the ALJ ruled that with "respect to Realcomp's Search Function Policy," the "Complaint Counsel had not shown that the nature of the alleged restraint was anticompetitive or unduly hindered consumer choice."

In other words, no competitors were hurt and no consumers were hurt. Next case.

But before anyone breaks out the champagne, here's a little footnote. When McGuire has ruled against the FTC before, he's been overturned. Why? The next step is an appeal.

The FTC can actually review its own case and make its own ruling.

Is this a great country or what?

But the David-Goliath battle isn't over yet. The FTC also filed against other MLSs and associations. Five have "settled" with the FTC, but any MLSs remaining should stand and fight.

"

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complete solution including design, application development and marketing."

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source: realestatelocator.com

Investor Report: The Basic Principles in Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi

There are no sure bets in real estate investing. Everybody knows that, but there are some basic principles that almost always work well.

For example, when most of the market is down or flat, look for counter-cyclical local "niche" markets that are at the very early stages of significant economic and population growth, and where land prices are relatively low.

One such area right now that's beginning to attract serious attention is Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi.

You may recall that it popped up out of nowhere in the latest quarterly federal home price survey numbers because average values there in the past year jumped by 6 percent, while much of the country was looking at negative numbers.

Well, it turns out there's something significant going in the Gulfport-Biloxi area two years after Hurricane Katrina -- namely economic growth powered by federal and state "Gulf Zone" investment and tax incentives, a major rebound in the casino industry, plus employment expansions at nearby military and NASA space research facilities.

Governor Haley Barbour says there's a need for at least 100,000 new, moderate cost houses in the area right now -- and as many as 300,000 over the next three to five years. And the good news for investors is that, despite the fact that the area now supports the second largest casino industry in the U.S. -- it's bigger than Atlantic City and second only to Vegas -- real estate is still cheap.

For example, you can buy a new 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,350 square feet home on a small lot in Bayside Park for $125,000, according to Michael Eadie of Gulfstream Realty and Development. As rentals aimed at the growing local workforce -- or even families finally getting out of their FEMA trailers -- Eadie says properties like these turn positive cash flows, qualify for special federal tax breaks, and have excellent long-term capital appreciation potentials.

Again, nothing is guaranteed in real estate. But the rebounding Mississippi Gulf Coast is definitely worth a close look.

"

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development, Internet programming,

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and hosting needs. Our service includes domain name
registration and real estate web design. Real Estate Designers provides the
complete solution including design, application development and marketing."

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source: realestatelocator.com